A Mathematical Model for Evaluation of Assets Returns in a Volatile Economy

Description

– A Mathematical Model for Evaluation of Assets Returns in a Volatile Economy  –

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Abstract

In recent years, advance in technology have made it possible for the stock markets to trade in real time and also for large dataset to be available for statistical analysis.

Thus, we examined the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock returns of 114 companies listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market.

We have established the mathematical framework required to solve our model and perform various empirical analysis on the stock market data and macroeconomic variable.

The formulated Macroeconomic Factor models are deployed to evaluate the effects of the macroeconomic variables on a volatile economy and Ordinary Least Square procedure are deployed to estimate the parameters of the model.

We apply the model to the available data and discovered that the stock market return volatility is influenced by the selected macroeconomic variables; Gross Domestic Product, Inflation, Foreign Exchange Rate, Unemployment, Interest Rate, Price of Crude Oil and Money supply. 

Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study

Nigeria is supposed to be one of the world’s richest nation if the natural reserve were used as a measure of wealth. In reality, oil reserve has been a curse to Nigeria instead of a blessing as the Agricultural, solid minerals and other non-oil sectors which were the main source of export have been neglected.

This has made crude oil to be the main product of Nigerian export, thus giving an unfavorable balance of trade and payment which greatly affects the Nigerian economy in particular exchange rate, unemployment rate and inflation.

In recent years Nigeria has become a crude oil exporting and finished products (from crude oil) importing country, the balance of payment for the import and export may either be favourable or unfavourable.

This volatility of oil prices has varying consequences on Nigeria as will reap the benefit of high oil prices as well as experience the unfavorable terms of trade in our external sector that can be transferred into the economy in the long run from oil imports.

This situation makes the value of the exchange rate to increase thereby reducing the purchasing power of local currency and increasing the cost of importing raw materials and production.

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