An Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserve Trend, Adequacy and Their Relationship with Selected Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria: 1980-2014

Description

Download An Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserve Trend, Adequacy and Their Relationship with Selected Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria: 1980-2014. Economics students who are writing their projects can get this material to aid their research work.

Abstract

Due to the increasing uncertainty as a result of globalisation, economies of developed and developing nations maintained adequate level of foreign exchange reserve to protect and achieve general stability in an economy.

Nigeria has witnessed an intermittent rise and fall in the level of its foreign exchange reserve without proportional effects in some key macroeconomic variables.

Instead, persistent problems like exchange rate volatility, and general macroeconomic instability continuous to prevailed even in periods of a fall or a rise in the level of foreign exchange reserve.

The specific objectives of this study were to establish the causal relationship between the trend in foreign exchange reserve with the selected macroeconomic variables, and also to identify the related macroeconomic variables associated with the observed fluctuating trend in foreign exchange reserve.

To achieve these objectives, the two- stage- least square (2SLS), granger causality and error correction techniques were used to estimate the specified model of the study.

Introduction

The early post-war reflections on the problems of developing countries led to the identification of insufficient capital stock as the cause of low income. Among the economists who made such prognoses are Hans Singer and Ragnar Nurkse.

In the words of Singer (1949), less developed countries suffer from ―a dominant vicious cycle of low production, no surplus for economic development, which leads to low tools and equipment and in turn causes low standard of production. 

Nurkse (1953:12) insists that the problem of these countries was that: There is small capacity to save resulting from low level of real income. The low level of real income is a reflection of low productivity, which in turn is due largely to the lack of capital, the lack of capital is a result of small capacity to save.

Given the need for larger capital stock and the inadequacy of domestic saving to finance investment that would make development possible, it was concluded that domestic saving should be supplemented by foreign resources and capital.

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