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Crude Oil Price Fluctuations and Economic Growth

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– Crude Oil Price Fluctuations and Economic Growth –

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Abstract

Oil prices traditionally have been more volatile than many other commodity or asset prices since World War II and has have a lot implications on major macroeconomic variables such as inflation, money supply, capacity utilization and economic growth to mention a few.

This paper investigated the growth implications of crude oil price fluctuation in Nigeria. Empirical analysis was conducted by applying the multiple regression of the ordinary least square technique to the annual data on the Nigeria economy for the period 1985 -2015.

The model was found to be significant and most of its estimates are as expected. The study revealed that a little shock in the price of crude oil in the global oil market in the current period will produce a long–term effect on economic growth in Nigeria.

The study suggested the need for the policy makers to diversify the productive base of the economy to other sectors such as Agriculture, Manufacturing, Tourism and other service oriented sectors to open up a wider spectrum for inflow of income to the economy and break the overdependence of the economy on oil sector.

Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study

Crude oil is a very profitable commodity, and has resulted in the economic development of many of the countries that produce it for export. Among other things, it has also led to the increase of their political power among other nations.

This is because this commodity is an essential one in our technologically advanced age. But the socio-economic situation in Nigeria and especially in oil producing communities is a totally different story.

Nigeria has been criticized in recent years, in terms of her economic performance. This is attributable to the worst and most prolonged economic crisis it has battled with over the past decades.

A quick glance at the structure of the Nigerian economy will reveal its precarious nature in terms of fiscal imbalances, poor export performance, high levels of account deficits, large and growing external debt, stagflation, rising degree of terrorism.

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