Dutch Disease and Resource Curse

Description

– Dutch Disease and Resource Curse  –

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Abstract

Over the years several authors have attributed the decline in Nigerian agricultural production to the neglect of the agricultural and manufacturing sector that resulted from the discovery of crude oil.

The study is both empirical and historical in nature and utilizes annual data for the period of 1981 to 2015.

Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model and its extension, the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model were used to estimate the conditional variance of Nigeria’s output volatility.

Investigating the time-varying Dutch disease and resource course in Nigeria within ARCH-GARCH framework, results reveal that output is volatile and there is a persistence shock in output like in other resource-abundant countries.

Results equally reveal that there are non-oil revenue volatility persistence shocks in Nigeria indicating evidence of Dutch disease in Nigeria.

Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study

Prior to the 1980s, it was believed that natural resource abundance would enable developing countries to make the transition from underdevelopment to industrial “take off”, just as it had done for countries such as Australia and the U.S (Rostow, 1961; Stages of Economic Growth).

This view now stands challenged by a number of studies that demonstrate the existence of a “resource curse” – slower growth and poorer economic performance in natural resource rich countries.

The traditional explanation for the resource curse is the Dutch Disease or “deindustrialization”.

That is, revenue from natural resources hurts traditional manufacturing through an increase in the exchange rate; also, resources such as labour and capital need to be moved from manufacturing to natural resource production.

Most studies on the Dutch Disease stop here although the argument is far from complete (Amin, 2009). Recent work suggests another explanation of the resource curse – the Nigerian Disease.

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