Impact of Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Major Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria (1987-2011)

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Abstract

Foreign exchange volatility affects the performance of macroeconomic indicators positively and negatively. Most import-dependent economies like Nigeria face the problem of foreign exchange rate volatility.

Nigeria’s over-dependence in the oil and gas sector of the economy has affected the major macro economic variables, and adverse foreign exchange rate regimes have affected the Nigerian economy over the years.

Nigeria’s major foreign earning is from oil; hence, volatility of crude oil prices in the world market has made the economy highly susceptible to the ever changing exchange rates.

Nigeria’s failure to diversify its economy which would have helped cushion the effect of the constant changes in oil prices has made the country susceptible to fluctuations in exchange rate.

This has had a heavy toll on our foreign reserves and invariably on our balance of trade and balance of payment. A proper foreign exchange rate management in many ways strives to balance the level of imports with that of exports of goods that the country has comparative advantage.

Introduction

There is scarcely any country that lives in absolute isolation in this globalised world. The economies of all the countries of the world are linked directly or indirectly through asset or/and goods markets, made possible through trade and foreign exchange.

The price of foreign currencies in terms of a local currency is therefore important to understanding of the growth pattern of economies of the world.

The history of exchange rate systems in Nigeria is traceable to the early 1960s. According to Bakare (2011:3), …before the establishment of the Central Bank of Nigeria in 1958 and the enactment of the Exchange Control Act of 1962, foreign exchange was earned by the private sector and held in balances abroad by commercial banks that acted as agents for local exporters…

The oil boom experienced in the 1970s made it necessary to manage foreign exchange rate in order to avoid shortage. However, shortages in the late 1970s and the early 1980s compelled the government to introduce some ad hoc measures to control excessive demand for foreign exchange.

However, it was not until 1982 that a comprehensive exchange controls were applied. Then a fixed exchange rate system was in practice.

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