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The Effects of Money Supply on Interest Rate in Nigeria (1988 – 2010)

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Abstract

This thesis work examines the effects of money supply on interest rates in Nigeria from 1988 – 2010, by applying the vector Auto-regression approach. The choice of this period is to enable us focus strictly on the era of market-based monetary regime in Nigeria.

The results confirm a negative effect of money supply on interest rates. This result relies on the liquidity frame theory. While, fiscal deficits indicated a positive relation with interest rate.

The granger causality indicated a bilateral relation between money supply and interest rate. It is recommended that for government to stimulate investment for economic growth, they should reduce interest rate by expanding money supply.

The government should also discourage unnecessary spending to bring down interest rate. Moreover, where deficit financing is inevitable, it should be put into productive activities in order to create more employment opportunities, raise national output, and increase the living standard of the people. 

Introduction

The ultimate effect of money on the real economy has always been of great concern to economists and monetary policymakers.

The Classical and New Classical Economics, namely the traditional approach proposes that money supply has no significant effect on interest rates.

This approach completely relies on The Quantity Theory of Money and assumes a dichotomy between monetary and real sectors, known as classical dichotomy.

Its main hypothesis is that the real money demand of people is fixed, so that there is a direct relation between money supply (Ms) and price level (P). (Mishkin-1989). A change in money supply induces price level to change through the same direction and by the same proportion.

The traditional approach hypothesizes that the interest rate is determined in the real sector by investment demands and loanable funds.

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