An Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserve Holdings and Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria
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Description
– An Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserve Holdings and Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria –
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Abstract
This study stems the depletion of Nigeria’s Reserves in recent times and the possible implications of this fluctuation of the Foreign Exchange Reserves on the macroeconomic stability of Nigeria in tandem with factors like holding of Reserves in excess and the desirability or otherwise of holding Reserves as embedded in the nation’s Reserve Management Strategy.
The study used quarterly data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2015.
A Reserve demand function was developed using a simultaneous equation model to provide a theoretic cover of the interdependence between Real GDP and Foreign Exchange Reserves while VAR Models were used to estimate the implications of Reserves on some macroeconomic indicators which included Inflation Rate, Exchange Rate and Investment.
Cointegration tests reveal that there was no long-run relationship amongst the variables in their respective models. It was found that the opportunity cost of holding Reserves though negatively affecting Reserve holdings was not significant, while other factors like the Capital and Current Account Vulnerability.
Introduction
Nigeria, like many other countries hold Foreign Exchange Reserve at what is perceived a favourable level, the reason for this is not farfetched. Foreign Exchange Reserve plays a critical role in the stability of any given economy on the whole and this is a major reason why its dynamics creates worrisome riddles to policy makers.
Foreign Exchange Reserve otherwise called External Reserve, as defined by the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 1993),
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN, 2007a), “consists of official public sector foreign assets that are readily available to, and controlled by the monetary authorities for direct financing of payment imbalances, through intervention in the exchange markets to affect the currency exchange rate and or for other purposes”.
This definition as implied by the IMF explains that the quantum of Foreign Exchange Reserve held in any given economy depends to an extent on the monetary policy implementation of the said economy.
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